Tomorrow
20–40 AQITypical regional AQICleaner: San Juan / Skagit 5–20 · Smokier: North Cascades 185–340
Today’s smoke outlook
35–50 AQI
Good
Typical regional AQI · Today
Surface smoke likelihood is moderate and elevated smoke likelihood is high; the most likely AQI range is 25-80. Satellite analysis detected visible smoke over or near the region. Community sensors show a west to east gradient.
Later
20–25 AQITypical regional AQICleaner: San Juan / Skagit 5–15 · Smokier: North Cascades 185–190
Localized conditions vary from the typical range
- San Juan Islands and Skagit20–35
- Seattle area65–85
- North Puget Sound55–70
- Kitsap area75–140
- North Olympic Peninsula45–70
- West Olympic Peninsula15–40
- Bellingham and Lower Mainland30–50
- Victoria area25–50
- North Cascades interior220–280
Representative location forecasts; localized exceptions are shown separately from the full regional envelope.
- Peak risk
- Tuesday Late Day
- Surface smoke
- Moderate likelihood
- Primary direction
- NW → SE
- Forecast horizon
- Next 48 hours
Why this forecast?
- N wind carries air toward S at 7 mph. Mixing is limited; surface transport likelihood is moderate.
- NW wind carries air toward SE at 4 mph. Mixing is shallow; surface transport likelihood is moderate.
- All essential forecast components are rated medium or higher, so overall confidence is medium.
Upcoming periods
TUESDAY, AUGUST 4
Late Day
Varies by area · typical AQI
- San Juan / Skagit25–35
- Puget Sound70–85
- North Olympic47 ↗ 61
- West Olympic30–40
- Bellingham / Vancouver40–50
- Victoria25–40
- North Cascades250–280variable
N→S · 7 mph · Moderate
Limited mixing
Surface Moderate
Likelihood of smoke affecting near-ground air during this period.
Aloft High
Likelihood of elevated smoke overhead; this does not by itself indicate surface AQI impact.
Evening / Overnight
Varies by area · typical AQI
- San Juan / Skagit27 ↘ 10
- Seattle70 ↘ 53
- North Sound59 ↘ 42
- Kitsap138 ↘ 58
- North Olympic63 ↘ 35
- West Olympic15–35variable
- Bellingham / Vancouver47 ↘ 25
- Victoria30–50variable
- North Cascades220–340variable
NW→SE · 4 mph · Light
Shallow mixing
Surface Moderate
Likelihood of smoke affecting near-ground air during this period.
Aloft Moderate
Likelihood of elevated smoke overhead; this does not by itself indicate surface AQI impact.
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 5
Morning
Varies by area · typical AQI
- San Juan / Skagit5–15
- Puget Sound40–50
- Olympic Peninsula30–40
- Bellingham / Vancouver25–30
- Victoria36 ↘ 23
- North Cascades335–340
NW→SE · 3 mph · Light
Shallow mixing
Surface Moderate
Likelihood of smoke affecting near-ground air during this period.
Aloft Moderate
Likelihood of elevated smoke overhead; this does not by itself indicate surface AQI impact.
Midday
Varies by area · typical AQI
- San Juan / Skagit10–15
- Puget Sound35–40
- Olympic Peninsula30–40
- Bellingham / Vancouver25–40
- Victoria15–20
- North Cascades335–340
NW→SE · 4 mph · Light
Limited mixing
Surface Moderate
Likelihood of smoke affecting near-ground air during this period.
Aloft Moderate
Likelihood of elevated smoke overhead; this does not by itself indicate surface AQI impact.
Late Day
Varies by area · typical AQI
- San Juan / Skagit10–20
- Seattle44 ↗ 59
- North Sound35–50
- Kitsap59 ↗ 87
- Olympic Peninsula20–30
- Bellingham / Vancouver30–50variable
- Victoria15–25
- North Cascades338 ↘ 207
NW→SE · 6 mph · Light
Limited mixing
Surface Moderate
Likelihood of smoke affecting near-ground air during this period.
Aloft Moderate
Likelihood of elevated smoke overhead; this does not by itself indicate surface AQI impact.
Evening / Overnight
Varies by area · typical AQI
- San Juan / Skagit5–15
- Puget Sound55 ↘ 38
- Olympic Peninsula15–25
- Bellingham / Vancouver20–35
- Victoria10–35variable
- North Cascades185–190
NW→SE · 4 mph · Light
Shallow mixing
Surface Moderate
Likelihood of smoke affecting near-ground air during this period.
Aloft Low
Likelihood of elevated smoke overhead; this does not by itself indicate surface AQI impact.
THURSDAY, AUGUST 6
Morning
Varies by area · typical AQI
- San Juan / Skagit5–10
- Puget Sound35–40
- Olympic Peninsula15–20
- Bellingham / Vancouver20–25
- Victoria10–15
- North Cascades185–190
W→E · 3 mph · Light
Shallow mixing
Surface Low
Likelihood of smoke affecting near-ground air during this period.
Aloft Low
Likelihood of elevated smoke overhead; this does not by itself indicate surface AQI impact.
Midday
Varies by area · typical AQI
- San Juan / Skagit5–10
- Puget Sound35–40
- Olympic Peninsula15–20
- Bellingham / Vancouver20–25
- Victoria10–15
- North Cascades185–190
W→E · 4 mph · Light
Shallow mixing
Surface Low
Likelihood of smoke affecting near-ground air during this period.
Aloft Low
Likelihood of elevated smoke overhead; this does not by itself indicate surface AQI impact.
Location AQI forecast
AQI FORECAST — EASTSOUND (ORCAS), WA
Last 47.9 Hours (History) • Next 48 Hours (Forecast) • Regulatory monitor composite
Observed historyForecast medianForecast range
AQI FORECAST — ANACORTES, WA
Last 47.9 Hours (History) • Next 48 Hours (Forecast) • Regulatory monitor composite
Observed historyForecast medianForecast range
AQI FORECAST — SEATTLE, WA
Last 47.9 Hours (History) • Next 48 Hours (Forecast) • Regulatory monitor composite
Observed historyForecast medianForecast range
AQI FORECAST — PORT ANGELES, WA
Last 47.9 Hours (History) • Next 48 Hours (Forecast) • Regulatory monitor composite
Observed historyForecast medianForecast range
AQI FORECAST — FORKS, WA
Last 47.9 Hours (History) • Next 48 Hours (Forecast) • Regulatory monitor composite
Observed historyForecast medianForecast range
AQI FORECAST — MOUNT VERNON, WA
Last 47.9 Hours (History) • Next 48 Hours (Forecast) • Regulatory monitor composite
Observed historyForecast medianForecast range
Smoke movement
Dominant NW flow transports air toward SE during midday. The leading ordinal source candidates are North Cascades fire activity, Interior British Columbia fire activity, Olympic Peninsula fire activity.
REGIONAL SOURCES AND TRANSPORT
SAN JUAN ISLANDS
Latest satellite
Aqua / MODIS · August 3, 2026 · approx. 1:30 PM local-solar pass
Retrieved August 4, 2026 at 3:07 PM PDT
NASA EOSDIS GIBS · True-color imagery; clouds and smoke may look similar. Not a surface AQI measurement. ?
Source potential
Ranked source potential, not estimated percentage contribution.
| Rank | Source | Potential | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medium | Regional aggregate Medium ordinal potential from 1 unresolved source cluster in this region. | |
| 2 | Medium | Regional aggregate Medium ordinal potential from 1 unresolved source cluster in this region. | |
| 3 | Medium | Regional aggregate Medium ordinal potential from 1 unresolved source cluster in this region. | |
| 4 | Medium | Verified Active · report 1h old — Operational report notes torching. | |
| 5 | Low | Verified Active · report 26h old — Operational report notes torching. |
Official fire perimeter
Recent FIRMS thermal detection
FIRMS detections through Aug 4, 2:21 PM PDT
Medium potential. Medium ordinal potential from 1 unresolved source cluster in this region.
Official perimeters are cumulative mapped fire extents. FIRMS points are satellite thermal anomalies—not active flame boundaries, smoke measurements, or proof of source contribution.
Official fire perimeter
Recent FIRMS thermal detection
FIRMS detections through Aug 4, 2:21 PM PDT
Official mapped perimeter: 100,324 acres
Medium potential. Medium ordinal potential from 1 unresolved source cluster in this region.
Official perimeters are cumulative mapped fire extents. FIRMS points are satellite thermal anomalies—not active flame boundaries, smoke measurements, or proof of source contribution.
Official fire perimeter
Recent FIRMS thermal detection
FIRMS detections through Aug 4, 4:34 AM PDT
Medium potential. Medium ordinal potential from 1 unresolved source cluster in this region.
Official perimeters are cumulative mapped fire extents. FIRMS points are satellite thermal anomalies—not active flame boundaries, smoke measurements, or proof of source contribution.
Official fire perimeter
Recent FIRMS thermal detection
FIRMS detections through Aug 4, 2:21 PM PDT
Official mapped perimeter: 5,123 acres
Medium potential. Active · report 1h old — Operational report notes torching.
Official perimeters are cumulative mapped fire extents. FIRMS points are satellite thermal anomalies—not active flame boundaries, smoke measurements, or proof of source contribution.
Official fire perimeter
Recent FIRMS thermal detection
FIRMS detections through Aug 4, 2:21 PM PDT
Official mapped perimeter: 1,146 acres
Low potential. Active · report 26h old — Operational report notes torching.
Official perimeters are cumulative mapped fire extents. FIRMS points are satellite thermal anomalies—not active flame boundaries, smoke measurements, or proof of source contribution.
Source evidence
Forecast confidence
77% · Medium confidence- Satellite analysis detected visible smoke over or near the region.
- Surface smoke signal is moderate.
- Elevated smoke signal is high.
- Community sensors show a west to east gradient.
- All essential forecast components are rated medium or higher, so overall confidence is medium.
About this forecast
This forecast combines fire detections, official incident intelligence, weather and smoke-transport models, satellite-visible smoke, and surface observations to estimate smoke conditions.
Methodology and limitations
- Ordinal source potential — not percentage contribution
- FIRMS detections are thermal anomalies, not fire perimeters.
- Trajectory lines are model wind paths, not smoke plumes.
- HRRR-Smoke is model output, not observed PM2.5 or AQI.
- No direct conversion from HRRR-Smoke concentration to AQI is applied.
- The local AQI area is a calibrated model-derived heuristic, not observed AQI.
- NOAA HMS polygons show satellite-visible column smoke, not surface PM2.5 or AQI.